Needless to say, the relationship between the two Koreas is not very warm right now, with threats of “sacred nuclear war” and “unsparing retaliation” being bandied about like candy in Halloween. As both countries mobilize their forces around the border, it may seem inevitable that war breaks out or compromise is wringed out to prevent North Korea’s tantrums progressing into war. However, the best course of action may be to call the bluff on their threats and ignore their ultimatums.

North Korea’s economy is virtually synonymous with its military. 33.6% of its GDP originates from “services”, and it’s hard to imagine that they go toward vaccination programs or free school lunches. It goes without saying that their state-controlled media likes to wax poetic about the regime’s military- “sacred war” pales in comparison to their threats of turning Japan into a “nuclear sea of fire”. They probably spend more on one of their military parades than the average North Korean spends on food in a lifetime. In economic, political, and social aspects, North Korea is dominated by its war machine. The term “military-industrial complex” loses meaning when a country’s industry is its military.

However, history has shown that such governments are unsustainable over the long run.  The Confederates lost the Civil War not because of a lack of military firepower but a lack of supplies and infrastructure to transport them. The 20^th century is littered with failed military states, chief among them the short reign of Hitler’s Nazis. Even the longest-lasting of military-based economies, the Soviet Union, collapsed under its own citizens’ protests. Although the main reason was a lack of political freedom, one must think that Russians’ lagging quality of life as a result of the overemphasis on industrial production played a part.

Like these examples, North Korea has an unsustainable consumer economy underlying its strong rhetoric. While we think of boutique malls and Gucci handbags when “consumer economy” is brought up, North Koreans think of everyday necessities that about as easy as said handbags to obtain. While their Dear Leader Kim Jong Il talks of a Sacred War to destroy South Korea and America for Make Benefit of Glorious Society of Perfection, his country is heavily dependent on foreign aid from those same countries to feed its own people.

And he knows this. He knows that to start a war would be suicidal for North Korea- its aid will dry up and its citizens and soldiers starve. While he somehow deludes the world that North Korea’s puny, non-functioning nuclear warheads holds South Korea hostage, its and our foreign aid is actually the gun to the head of his regime. The threats of war are nothing but a bluff in the high-stakes poker game of international relations, designed to extort more benefits-and leniency- from its enemies/saviors.

Therefore, if we call North Korea’s bluff, the Dear Leader will have no choice but to humbly return to the negotiation table and offer concessions- particularly on its nuclear program- to please the international community. It would be the only course of action since war ensures the fall of his regime, we refuse to cave in to his demands, and his government is unsustainable if he continues to alienate other countries like he’s doing now. The threats of war is a short-term, desperate attempt at attention and aid; if we treat North Korea like the 1980s Soviets- wait out the threat and don’t acquiesce- the Koreas are closer to, and not further away from, a solution to finally end the Korean Cold War.


(Photo: Mark Scott Johnson)